Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x417f…48df
crypto · 137 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$9 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses86 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage94d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 137 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $90 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $111 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $111 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $47 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $106 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 18 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 18 $30 −$8 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 15 $20 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $90 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +9.7% -0.7% 81% 67% -15.1%
≤30d 36 +9.7% -0.7% 81% 67% -15.1%
≤90d 96 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 52% -17.3%
all 137 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 51% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 51% -9.4%
10% -20.3% 34% -18.0%
15% -28.0% 24% -25.9%
20% -35.1% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records