Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x4180…3f85 other 35 markets active 2d ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,333 (-24%) realized −$1,333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$119
14 days+$123
30 days+$823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$722
sports 22% −$1,169
crypto 16% −$888
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.9% -39.3% 40% 40% -4.1%
≤30d 8 -17.9% -25.7% 50% 50% +13.2%
≤90d 20 -21.8% -29.3% 50% 50% -2.8%
all 32 -23.1% -30.4% 47% 47% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 47% -31.3%
10% -37.1% 44% -37.8%
15% -43.2% 38% -43.8%
20% -48.7% 25% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$182 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1,333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage198d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $888 −$888 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,062 +$1,021 +96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1,300 +$700 +54%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? May 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a d Apr 24 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 16 $14 +$12 +86%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Penguins vs. Canadiens Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 22 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 22 $1 $0 +30%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 22 $1 $0 +30%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 22 $1 $0 +37%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 22 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Mar 16 $1 $0 +49%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $1 $0 -19%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 29 $32 −$9 -28%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 02 $25 +$4 +18%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $2 +$1 +37%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Osasuna vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Dec 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? Dec 15 $620 −$620 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-07? Dec 08 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 16¢ $4 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,058 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $888 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 24d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $416 24d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $884 24d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 54d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 54d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a d BUY Yes 31¢ $390 54d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 69d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 92d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 92d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 92d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 92d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 92d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 34¢ $155 92d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 113d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 113d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 132d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 138d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 153d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 165d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 175d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.41 · official $8.41 · 73 history records