Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4184…a344 crypto 1319 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate82%1079W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day62.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$14
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 +1.1% -8.5% 86% 32% -8.9%
≤30d 1319 -0.5% -10.0% 82% 34% -10.3%
≤90d 1319 -0.5% -10.0% 82% 34% -10.3%
all 1319 -0.5% -10.0% 82% 34% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 34% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 11% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1079 / 240
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1319 / 1319
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day62.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1319 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2865 history records