Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4185…298d
sports · 383 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9,912 -77%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,914 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$9,914
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses171 / 201
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions11
Markets (closed)372 / 383
History coverage78d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 11 History 372 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$19
14 days+$30
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 36¢ 48¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 78¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5 Under 50¢ 49¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C. AEK 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FCSB win on 2026-05-29? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Phoenix Mercury 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
FK Mladá Boleslav vs. FK Dukla Praha: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-05-19? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 169.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Club The Strongest vs. Bamin Real Potosí: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-09? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Connecticut Sun 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 104.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $3 +$4 +140%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 11 $3 +$3 +105%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +97%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 +$3 +100%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +89%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $2 +$4 +180%
Will Sweden vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +52%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 162.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$3 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +105%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 09 $3 +$3 +90%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +76%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 +$3 +109%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 08 $3 +$3 +105%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $3 +$11 +344%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +64%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $4 +$3 +70%
Spread: Denmark (-1.5) Jun 08 $4 +$3 +73%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +109%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $2 $0 -3%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$7,818
other 17% −$2,089
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $5 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 172.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 47h
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 20¢ $2 47h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 47h
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 47h
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY New York Liberty 41¢ $3 47h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 47h
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY La Laguna Tenerife 20¢ $2 2d
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Jerusalem BUY Hapoel Jerusalem 47¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 62¢ $3 2d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Connecticut Sun 25¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 2d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $3 2d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 3d
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 47% +0.4%
≤30d 295 +3.9% -6.0% 46% 46% -0.5%
≤90d 372 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 46% -79.5%
all 372 -0.6% -10.1% 46% 46% -79.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 46% -79.5%
10% -18.7% 45% -81.5%
15% -26.6% 44% -83.2%
20% -33.8% 40% -84.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.51 · official $40.51 (match) · 629 history records