Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:55:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4185…bde4
sports · 23 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$36 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 56¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 51¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Angels 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 51¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -42%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $43 +$16 +38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 +$24 +112%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% +$5
other 40% +$32
world 8% $0
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $1 22m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $21 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 50¢ $1 3h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $1 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $1 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 6h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 10h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 10h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $46 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $2 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $1 28h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 99¢ $2 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 33h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 43¢ $1 33h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 33h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $2 37h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $1 37h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 58¢ $1 37h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 52¢ $1 37h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $1 37h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 27% +16.8%
≤30d 22 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 27% +16.8%
≤90d 22 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 27% +16.8%
all 22 -13.7% -21.9% 32% 27% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 27% +16.8%
10% -29.4% 27% +5.6%
15% -36.2% 27% -4.6%
20% -42.5% 18% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.33 (match) · 47 history records