Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4189…f622 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$966 (-16%) realized −$656 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day412.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$547
7 days−$612
14 days−$656
30 days−$656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -67.3% -70.4% 13% 6% -23.1%
≤30d 127 -58.3% -62.3% 15% 7% -18.7%
≤90d 127 -58.3% -62.3% 15% 7% -18.7%
all 127 -58.3% -62.3% 15% 7% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover412.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.3% 7% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -65.9% 2% -26.5%
15% -69.2% 1% -33.6%
20% -72.2% 0% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -96% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
52.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$656
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 108
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 54
History coverage8d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day412.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 54¢ 90¢ $112 $188 +$76 (+68%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 46¢ 10¢ $21 $4 −$17 (-79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$36 -828%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.92 · official $204.83 · 3500 history records