Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

41 0x4189…d9f5 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$1 (-4%) realized +$4 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+26.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+39.4%	+26.2%	100%	100%	+26.2%
≤30d	1	+39.4%	+26.2%	100%	100%	+26.2%
≤90d	1	+39.4%	+26.2%	100%	100%	+26.2%
all	1	+39.4%	+26.2%	100%	100%	+26.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.2%	100%	+26.2%
10%	+14.1%	100%	+14.1%
15%	+3.1%	100%	+3.1%
20%	-7.0%	0%	-7.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +39% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3

Realized+$4

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia?	No	59¢	100¢	$2	$3	+$1 (+70%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$10	+$4	+39%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$14	3m
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia?	BUY No	59¢	$2	17m
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	50¢	$2	17m
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	SELL Yes	17¢	$5	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.41 · official $3.41 (match) · 8 history records