Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x4189…a03b
crypto · 1783 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$477 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$477 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$477
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1694 / 324
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2018 / 1783
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day76.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 0 History 2018 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$448
7 days−$463
14 days−$470
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$20
other 7% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 23m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 28m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 33m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 48m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 48m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 53m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 949 -26.3% -33.4% 69% 3% -43.2%
≤30d 2018 -13.0% -21.3% 84% 2% -24.7%
≤90d 2018 -13.0% -21.3% 84% 2% -24.7%
all 2018 -13.0% -21.3% 84% 2% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 2% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 1% -31.9%
15% -35.7% 1% -38.5%
20% -42.0% 1% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records