Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x418d…7739 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized −$5 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% -7.0%
≤30d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% -7.0%
≤90d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% -7.0%
all 16 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 50% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 44% -15.9%
15% -25.4% 38% -24.0%
20% -32.7% 19% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 70¢ 98¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? No 53¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 15 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? SELL No 22¢ $1 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 91¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 22m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 25m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? SELL No 43¢ $8 25m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 51m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $5 56m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 56m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 56m
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.42 · official $21.24 (match) · 61 history records