Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:22:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x4190…7209 crypto 1000 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-3%) realized −$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%691W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$24
14 days−$174
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$337
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -10.8% -19.3% 64% 34% -16.2%
≤30d 389 -7.6% -16.4% 66% 38% -14.9%
≤90d 1000 -6.5% -15.4% 69% 40% -14.1%
all 1000 -6.5% -15.4% 69% 40% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 40% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 9% -22.3%
15% -30.9% 3% -29.8%
20% -37.6% 1% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses691 / 309
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1000 / 1000
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1000 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$4 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records