Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:51:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
41 0x4197…039d sports 7 markets active 1d ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,183 (+89%) realized +$1,183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,165
30 days+$1,165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$1,179
other 8% −$15
world 8% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +23.1% +11.4% 50% 25% +71.5%
≤90d 6 +4.4% -5.6% 50% 33% +70.6%
all 6 +4.4% -5.6% 50% 33% +70.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 33% +70.6%
10% -14.6% 33% +54.3%
15% -22.9% 17% +39.4%
20% -30.4% 17% +25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$395 vs −$8 · ×48.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×48.73 per $1 lost it wins $48.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$1,183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage64d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,082 +$1,184 +109%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $110 −$15 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23? Apr 24 $4 +$1 +34%
LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 23 $6 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $18 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,082 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $94 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $110 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 80¢ $96 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $100 10d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23? BUY Up 74¢ $4 64d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 64d
LoL: Galions vs Esprit Shōnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season BUY Esprit Shōnen 23¢ $6 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.69 · official $17.69 (match) · 14 history records