Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x419a…4f30 other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%20W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$40
sports 22% −$22
politics 9% −$11
culture 8% −$8
economics 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$1
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses20 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage134d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $248 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $872 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $557 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $606 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $724 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $175 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $151 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $387 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $417 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $444 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $221 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 06 $533 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $171 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $341 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $303 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $500 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 4h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 9h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 11h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 13h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 13h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 30h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 32h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 33h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 35h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $62 36h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 41h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 42h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 44h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 45h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $62 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1404 history records