Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x419a…e987 politics 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$16
politics 38% −$18
sports 9% −$41
crypto 5% −$2
tech 4% −$1
world 4% −$2
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -3.6% -12.8% 5% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage134d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $196 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 27 $252 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $205 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $267 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $258 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $251 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 17 $430 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $425 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 10 $208 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $233 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $246 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $244 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $196 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $254 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $195 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $269 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 28 $404 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $228 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $400 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 14h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 18d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 21d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 21d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $31 22d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 22d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $265 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $265 26d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $196 26d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $196 26d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $252 27d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $252 28d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $274 28d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $274 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $216 28d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $216 29d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $265 29d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $265 30d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $205 30d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $205 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $246 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $246 32d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $267 32d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $267 33d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $275 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 394 history records