Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x419a…f415 sports 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+2%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate88%142W / 19L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$28
other 27% +$3
crypto 19% −$6
world 8% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +1.1% -8.5% 83% 21% -9.8%
≤30d 161 +2.2% -7.6% 88% 20% -8.2%
≤90d 161 +2.2% -7.6% 88% 20% -8.2%
all 161 +2.2% -7.6% 88% 20% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 20% -8.2%
10% -16.4% 5% -17.0%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.0%
20% -31.9% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses142 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)161 / 164
History coverage29d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 161 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $94 −$1 -1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +35%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 +18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -39%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $87 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $8 +$1 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $7 +$1 +7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$1 -19%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 +$1 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $131 +$8 +6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $127 +$4 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $121 +$6 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $58 −$16 -27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$21 -21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 93¢ $93 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $79 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $15 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $5 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $2 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $5 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $2 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 89¢ $2 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 7h
Brazil to win the second half? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 87¢ $5 8h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 8h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 9h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 95¢ $5 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 378 history records