Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
41 0x419c…ba06 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+39%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +49.5% +35.3% 43% 39% +21.8%
≤30d 28 +49.5% +35.3% 43% 39% +21.8%
≤90d 28 +49.5% +35.3% 43% 39% +21.8%
all 28 +49.5% +35.3% 43% 39% +21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.3% 39% +21.8%
10% ← realistic here +22.4% 39% +10.2%
15% +10.5% 29% -0.5%
20% -0.3% 18% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +140% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$24 +451%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$108 +2030%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $34 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $33 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $39 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records