Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x419d…e52b crypto 777 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$669 (-4%) realized −$655 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate49%380W / 396L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day76.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$350
7 days−$647
14 days−$767
30 days−$1,191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -14.2% -22.4% 45% 16% -16.4%
≤30d 776 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 20% -16.4%
≤90d 776 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 20% -16.4%
all 776 -11.6% -20.0% 49% 20% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 20% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 13% -24.4%
15% -34.6% 8% -31.7%
20% -41.1% 5% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$655
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses380 / 396
Open positions1
Markets (closed)776 / 777
History coverage24d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day76.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 776 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 72¢ 4¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $61 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $82 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $72 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $61 −$18 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $174 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $132 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $143 −$38 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $71 −$49 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $184 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $117 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $112 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $111 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $76 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $82 −$29 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $91 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $103 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $104 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $72 −$49 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $13 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $14 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $21 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $13 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $32 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $40 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $31 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $4.27 · 2499 history records