Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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41 0x419f…e853 crypto 799 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$615 (-14%) realized −$752 · open +$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%206W / 769L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day72.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$610
7 days−$592
14 days−$1
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$494
other 11% −$27
economics 4% −$11
world 2% +$103
sports 1% +$22
tech 1% −$3
politics 1% −$10
finance 0% +$4
weather 0% +$10
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 406 -56.2% -60.4% 12% 9% -44.1%
≤30d 717 -11.0% -19.5% 22% 19% -7.1%
≤90d 975 -15.5% -23.5% 21% 19% -15.4%
all 975 -15.5% -23.5% 21% 19% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.5% 19% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 17% -23.5%
15% -37.5% 15% -30.9%
20% -43.6% 14% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$752
Unrealized+$137
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses206 / 769
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions49
Markets (closed)975 / 799
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day72.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 975 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? No 4¢ 19¢ $14 $63 +$50 (+365%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 23? No 1¢ 6¢ $7 $28 +$21 (+296%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? No 3¢ 8¢ $7 $20 +$12 (+164%)
Will Uzbekistan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 0¢ 11¢ $0 $17 +$17 (+5350%)
Will Cape Verde win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 9¢ $0 $17 +$16 (+8800%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? No 3¢ 7¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+154%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? No 2¢ 7¢ $3 $14 +$11 (+366%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 23? No 1¢ 2¢ $6 $12 +$7 (+127%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? No 2¢ 12¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+400%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? No 1¢ 6¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+425%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? No 3¢ 4¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+43%)
Will Jordan concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $0 $8 +$7 (+5950%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? No 1¢ 3¢ $3 $7 +$5 (+168%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 20? No 2¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-27%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 20? No 2¢ 0¢ $16 $4 −$11 (-71%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-53%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 21? No 2¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? No 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+261%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? No 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? No 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+71%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 3¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 451 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 4? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 12? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 7? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +43%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 22? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 2? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 24 million or more views on day 1? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Jun 18 $0 $0 -45%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$11 -184%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 3? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Israel" 3+ times during Monday press conference? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 13? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 6? Jun 18 $4 −$6 -173%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 24? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 13? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 26? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 9? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 15? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 13? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$9 +428%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 12? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 16? Jun 18 $0 −$2 -371%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? Jun 18 $1 −$4 -353%
Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 20? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethena be accused of insider trading? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 12? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +383%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? SELL No 5¢ $9 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL No 18¢ $34 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? SELL No 6¢ $17 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? SELL No 0¢ $2 54m
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 54m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? SELL No 10¢ $1 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL No 15¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? SELL No 11¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL No 4¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Türkiye win on 202 BUY 4¢ $1 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06 BUY 2¢ $2 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? SELL No 9¢ $6 17h
Will Iran concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 33¢ $3 17h
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 19h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 18¢ $17 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $1 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $1 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 24? BUY No 1¢ $1 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY No 3¢ $5 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 5¢ $11 21h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 9¢ $3 22h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 2¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY No 2¢ $4 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY No 4¢ $13 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY No 1¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 3¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.11 · official $292.13 · 3500 history records