Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
41 0x41a0…b8a1 crypto 1157 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,736 (-13%) realized −$7,720 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate70%818W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day57.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$3,170
other 4% −$61
sports 1% +$150
world 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 -21.7% -29.2% 57% 33% -23.7%
≤30d 462 -17.2% -25.1% 61% 31% -23.5%
≤90d 1170 -8.8% -17.5% 70% 35% -14.7%
all 1170 -8.8% -17.5% 70% 35% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 35% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 21% -22.9%
15% -32.6% 11% -30.4%
20% -39.2% 6% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$29 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$995
Realized−$7,720
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses818 / 352
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1170 / 1157
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 80¢ $250 $220 −$30 (-12%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+129%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+88%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $251 +$62 +25%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$89 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $91 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $150 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 21h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $994.93 · official $994.93 (match) · 3500 history records