Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41a0…87e7 sports 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$718 (+3%) realized +$724 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%48W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$475est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,539
other 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -50.3% -55.0% 23% 21% -41.9%
≤30d 165 -34.0% -40.3% 28% 24% -37.7%
≤90d 167 -33.8% -40.1% 29% 25% -37.7%
all 168 -33.8% -40.1% 29% 24% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 24% -37.7%
10% -45.9% 18% -43.6%
15% -51.1% 14% -49.1%
20% -55.9% 9% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$73 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$724
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses48 / 120
Est. fees paid−$475
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 170
History coverage98d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Flame Team 21¢ 20¢ $67 $63 −$4 (-6%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $310 −$31 -10%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $215 −$27 -13%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $175 +$12 +7%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $142 −$141 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $160 +$205 +128%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $152 −$100 -66%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $312 −$190 -61%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $25 −$18 -73%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $202 −$81 -40%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $606 −$101 -17%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $520 −$279 -54%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $271 −$16 -6%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $24 −$3 -14%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $344 −$100 -29%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $256 −$152 -59%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $289 −$34 -12%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $78 −$76 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$32 -64%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $250 −$170 -68%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $507 +$207 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $106 −$9 -8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 15 $338 −$161 -48%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 15 $106 −$33 -31%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $240 +$92 +38%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 15 $51 +$24 +46%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $122 −$20 -16%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $623 −$241 -39%
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $252 −$100 -40%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $180 −$80 -44%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $455 −$251 -55%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$10 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $229 −$223 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Man eSports LFO vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $224 −$100 -45%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $255 −$137 -54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$39 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $253 −$50 -20%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $97 −$19 -19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$125 +249%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 21¢ $69 4m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 35¢ $69 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 38¢ $77 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 47¢ $54 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 49¢ $23 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 48¢ $80 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 46¢ $73 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 61¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL Flame Team 40¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 33¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 7¢ $28 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 94¢ $178 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 99¢ $187 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $187 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 93¢ $175 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 26¢ $55 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 46¢ $102 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $41 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $42 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 19¢ $41 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 61¢ $101 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $365 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $160 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $64 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 78¢ $50 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $102 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $247 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 54¢ $51 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $35 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $85 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.11 · official $63.11 (match) · 588 history records