Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41a1…dae0
crypto · 489 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$777 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$777 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$777
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses192 / 759
Open positions1
Markets (closed)951 / 489
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day281.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 951 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$546
7 days−$679
14 days−$777
30 days−$777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 51¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-56.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 768 -62.6% -66.2% 14% 8% -29.1%
≤30d 951 -51.4% -56.0% 20% 13% -26.8%
≤90d 951 -51.4% -56.0% 20% 13% -26.8%
all 951 -51.4% -56.0% 20% 13% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover281.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.0% 13% -26.8%
10% ← realistic here -60.2% 7% -33.8%
15% -64.1% 5% -40.2%
20% -67.6% 3% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.99 (match) · 3500 history records