Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
41 0x41a3…017d sports 1516 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27,303 (-10%) realized −$27,252 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%854W / 754L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$1,071est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 123d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$16,221
other 2% −$557
crypto 1% −$404
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -61.1% -64.8% 20% 20% -83.8%
≤30d 446 -23.5% -30.8% 44% 43% -44.9%
≤90d 1144 -14.9% -23.0% 51% 49% -27.7%
all 1608 -12.4% -20.7% 53% 51% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 51% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 45% -29.0%
15% -35.3% 36% -35.9%
20% -41.6% 23% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$141 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$27,252
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses854 / 754
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,071
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1608 / 1516
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$174
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1608 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 61¢ 62¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 17 $176 −$293 -166%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $344 −$1,301 -378%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $739 −$739 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 17 $100 −$346 -346%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 17 $0 −$788 -584508%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $520 −$520 -100%
Kings vs. Sabres Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Qairat FK: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $83 −$115 -138%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Wofford Terriers vs. Chattanooga Mocs Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5 Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Fokina vs. Humbert: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
NJIT Highlanders vs. Albany Great Danes Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $336 −$336 -100%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 219.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
76ers vs. Warriors: O/U 217.5 Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Pistons vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Bulls vs. Pacers Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: DRX Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks vs. New Hampshire Wildcats Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Lightning vs. Stars: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $758 −$758 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5 Jun 17 $274 −$274 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-2.5) Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $61 5m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 99¢ $134 5m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $12 9m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $34 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $16 31m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $65 33m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $101 58m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $195 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $71 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $68 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $61 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 97¢ $93 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $51 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $54 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 72¢ $63 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $51 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $93 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 92¢ $91 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $71 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 6h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 31¢ $30 6h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $63 8h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 8h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $46 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $61 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $100 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.53 · official $62.02 (match) · 3500 history records