Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41a5…75bb sports 347 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,552 (-4%) realized −$2,682 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%169W / 177L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$741est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,817
7 days−$929
14 days+$426
30 days+$1,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$3,082
other 6% +$706
culture 4% −$1,016
crypto 2% −$244
politics 1% +$605
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +10.5% -0.0% 47% 47% -17.6%
≤30d 174 +12.3% +1.6% 51% 51% -4.5%
≤90d 274 +9.2% -1.2% 50% 50% -8.3%
all 346 +4.9% -5.1% 49% 49% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 49% -13.5%
10% -14.2% 46% -21.7%
15% -22.5% 42% -29.3%
20% -30.1% 36% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$171 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized−$2,682
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses169 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$741
Open positions1
Markets (closed)346 / 347
History coverage236d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 43¢ 74¢ $186 $316 +$130 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $286 −$46 -16%
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) Jun 24 $356 −$356 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 24 $155 −$155 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $185 −$185 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $486 −$486 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $355 −$355 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $162 −$162 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $147 −$147 -100%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 23 $85 −$25 -29%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $219 +$130 +59%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $552 −$552 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $102 +$183 +180%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $150 −$150 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 23 $224 −$224 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $146 +$27 +18%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $212 −$212 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $121 +$184 +152%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $96 −$96 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $293 +$237 +81%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $241 +$267 +111%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $204 +$300 +147%
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 22 $82 +$82 +100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $103 +$222 +216%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$55 -11%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $115 +$111 +97%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $220 +$40 +18%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $223 −$223 -100%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5) Jun 21 $204 +$310 +152%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $308 +$207 +67%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $90 +$110 +122%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $74 +$73 +98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $168 −$168 -100%
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 20 $128 +$169 +132%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $230 −$230 -100%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $143 −$143 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $123 +$47 +38%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $73 +$192 +262%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $171 −$171 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $254 −$254 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $203 +$148 +73%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $165 +$130 +78%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $692 +$109 +16%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $277 +$160 +58%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 +$273 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 42¢ $74 54m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $74 54m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 66¢ $49 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Yellow Submarine 43¢ $49 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $166 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 28¢ $118 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 28¢ $48 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 39¢ $237 4h
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) BUY Inner Circle 61¢ $99 6h
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) BUY Inner Circle 60¢ $4 8h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $155 20h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $185 20h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) BUY Enjoy 35¢ $356 24h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 11¢ $27 24h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 11¢ $7 24h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 26¢ $109 25h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 61¢ $98 25h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 66¢ $246 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 71¢ $105 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 71¢ $5 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 71¢ $245 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 27¢ $1 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 27¢ $1 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 27¢ $76 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 27¢ $4 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 27¢ $75 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY Grind Back 26¢ $4 25h
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) SELL OG 31¢ $61 25h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $349 27h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY OG 62¢ $219 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.00 · official $316.00 (match) · 1173 history records