Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41a6…c1d3 other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%30W / 26L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$1
other 27% −$1
politics 8% −$1
culture 5% +$1
finance 4% $0
sports 3% +$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -1.4% -10.7% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -1.2% -10.6% 35% 0% -9.7%
all 56 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses30 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage446d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 48¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $65 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $1 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $6 −$2 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $25 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $37 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $21 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $36 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jul 08 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher? Jul 07 $14 $0 +3%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 24 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 07 $7 $0 +3%
Will Publisher win the 2025 Kentucky Derby? May 06 $6 $0 +3%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 29 $13 $0 -4%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadi Apr 28 $4 −$1 -13%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $8 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $18 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $18 29h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $40 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $40 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $19 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $14 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $12 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $3 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $25 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $12 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $39 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 26d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 26d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.92 · official $34.92 (match) · 177 history records