Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:33:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
41 0x41a8…ff67 sports 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$625 (-0%) realized −$682 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,625per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$2,954est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6,575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,535
other 4% +$832
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +42.6% +29.0% 42% 32% -5.0%
≤30d 63 +21.8% +10.2% 46% 38% -12.4%
≤90d 67 +16.8% +5.7% 45% 37% -12.1%
all 67 +16.8% +5.7% 45% 37% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 37% -12.1%
10% -4.4% 31% -20.5%
15% -13.6% 25% -28.2%
20% -22.1% 22% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$3,019) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$500 vs −$507 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$6,575
Realized−$682
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$2,954
Open positions20
Markets (closed)67 / 87
History coverage33d
Avg bet$1,625
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ 64¢ $3,500 $3,527 +$27 (+1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $3,000 $3,030 +$30 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 67¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 50¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 44¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $661 −$470 -71%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1,024 −$269 -26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,034 −$9 -0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3,056 −$413 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,955 +$1,609 +54%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,019 +$169 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $2,030 −$95 -5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,067 +$2,669 +66%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,011 +$427 +42%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,014 +$663 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $4,810 +$1,418 +30%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $812 −$719 -88%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $514 −$125 -24%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $512 −$50 -10%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $3,061 −$215 -7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $7,090 −$1,042 -15%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $506 −$499 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $9,065 −$1,567 -17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9,140 +$94 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $505 −$500 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9,155 −$112 -1%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $8,089 +$1,106 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8,218 +$595 +7%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $8,115 −$76 -1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 −$6 -3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6,038 +$1,549 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,043 +$844 +17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $915 −$70 -8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $8,077 −$1,795 -22%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $4,990 +$2,685 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $624 −$10 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $705 −$10 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,722 −$644 -37%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 04 $1 +$1 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $10,080 −$8,363 -83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $1 +$1 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 +$1 +129%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 29 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $3,538 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3,045 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 13¢ $191 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $755 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 64¢ $3,025 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 35¢ $2,643 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 83¢ $1 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $661 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1,023 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3,055 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3,033 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $4,128 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $400 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 80¢ $23 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 86¢ $3,187 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,943 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $3,017 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $1 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 81¢ $1 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 64¢ $1 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 18¢ $1 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 13h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,574.78 · official $6,574.78 (match) · 203 history records