Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:25:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41a8…73fb crypto 404 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (532 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$980 (-10%) realized −$980 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%215W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day532.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,059
other 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (532 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 318 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 48% -17.8%
≤30d 404 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 43% -19.1%
≤90d 404 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 43% -19.1%
all 404 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 43% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover532.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 43% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 30% -26.8%
15% -31.8% 22% -33.9%
20% -38.5% 13% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$980
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses215 / 189
Open positions0
Markets (closed)404 / 404
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day532.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 404 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$5 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$6 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$12 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$28 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$15 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $82 +$7 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $61 −$26 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$7 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$12 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $13 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $8 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records