Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:47:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x41b1…58ec other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$14
politics 29% −$13
sports 11% −$5
crypto 7% −$2
tech 4% −$1
economics 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 115 -3.0% -12.2% 10% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 4% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage135d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $269 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $252 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,266 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $317 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $414 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $301 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $286 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $306 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $261 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $314 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 16 $277 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $297 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $266 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $293 $0 -0%
Will Charl Schwartzel win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $193 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $280 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $525 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 25h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 29h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $38 29h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $38 34h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 41h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 13d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 23d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $317 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $317 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $232 29d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $252 30d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $252 30d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $284 32d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $284 32d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $317 34d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $317 34d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $263 35d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $263 35d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $221 36d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $221 36d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $218 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.99 · official $27.99 (match) · 346 history records