Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
41 0x41b1…df57 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$248 (+9%) realized +$249 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%37W / 107L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$276
14 days+$151
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$391
other 13% −$105
crypto 9% −$59
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +8.8% -1.6% 30% 30% +13.0%
≤30d 144 -8.8% -17.5% 26% 26% -1.3%
≤90d 144 -8.8% -17.5% 26% 26% -1.3%
all 144 -8.8% -17.5% 26% 26% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 26% -1.3%
10% -25.4% 26% -10.8%
15% -32.6% 26% -19.4%
20% -39.2% 26% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$15 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$249
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses37 / 107
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions7
Markets (closed)144 / 151
History coverage20d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Nicolas Jadoun 25¢ 24¢ $77 $75 −$2 (-2%)
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Susan Bandecchi 28¢ 28¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Anastasiia Sobolieva 37¢ 37¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Luisina Giovannini Luisina Giovannini 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $15 +$43 +280%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $48 +$199 +414%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $82 +$185 +226%
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi Jun 17 $15 +$67 +437%
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $20 +$73 +355%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
ITF Dinard: Clemence Lesdos vs Chloe Noel Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $31 +$17 +54%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
ITF Taipei: Ayano Shimizu vs Yuki Naito Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$31 +307%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $10 +$16 +158%
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov Jun 15 $15 +$24 +158%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pietro Marino vs Pavel Lagutin Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $8 −$5 -66%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$56 +365%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun BUY Nicolas Jadoun 25¢ $78 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Susan Bandecchi 28¢ $72 2h
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu BUY Stray Kittens 15¢ $30 3h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato BUY Naho Sato 20¢ $49 4h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 26¢ $20 4h
Brescia: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 37¢ $31 4h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Benjamin Oconnell 7¢ $21 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 5h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 26¢ $15 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 8¢ $12 16h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Gonzalo Bueno 18¢ $41 16h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 25¢ $51 16h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 14¢ $27 17h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 15¢ $10 17h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 42h
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze BUY Ekaterine Gorgodze 19¢ $48 42h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 25¢ $20 42h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 100¢ $266 42h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 30¢ $82 44h
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi SELL Isabella De Micco Padula 99¢ $82 44h
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi BUY Isabella De Micco Padula 18¢ $15 47h
ITF Taipei: Nao Nishino vs Kristiana Sidorova BUY Nao Nishino 27¢ $23 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 26¢ $56 2d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 17¢ $17 2d
ITF Dinard: Clemence Lesdos vs Chloe Noel BUY Clemence Lesdos 13¢ $23 2d
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 11¢ $10 2d
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 21¢ $20 2d
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Petr Bar Biryukov 5¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.47 · official $256.54 (match) · 210 history records