Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
41 0x41b4…10da crypto 273 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,102 (+8%) realized +$17,404 · open −$302
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%154W / 112L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$822per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$2,463est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$7,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$581
7 days+$2,004
14 days−$4,199
30 days+$11,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$16,514
crypto 18% +$215
other 8% −$5,491
finance 2% +$636
world 1% +$1,070
politics 1% +$632
tech 0% −$177
culture 0% −$12
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -18.9% -26.6% 42% 37% -7.0%
≤30d 219 -4.0% -13.1% 54% 50% -4.4%
≤90d 266 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 53% -3.8%
all 266 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 53% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 53% -3.8%
10% -19.4% 45% -13.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 36% -21.4%
20% -34.4% 25% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$994) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$600 vs −$702 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$7,764
Realized+$17,404
Unrealized−$302
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses154 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$2,463
Open positions7
Markets (closed)266 / 273
History coverage42d
Avg bet$822
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 50¢ 50¢ $5,579 $5,535 −$44 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 50¢ 50¢ $1,500 $1,485 −$15 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Yes 52¢ 30¢ $631 $371 −$260 (-41%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Yes 65¢ 70¢ $232 $250 +$19 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $87 $92 +$5 (+6%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 58¢ 54¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 58¢ 35¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $994 −$702 -71%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $4,109 +$3,205 +78%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $1,523 +$1,314 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $1,031 −$27 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,518 +$1,709 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $472 −$228 -48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,762 −$3,762 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $863 −$326 -38%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $1,526 −$1,501 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1,527 −$1,500 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$2 -21%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $9,263 +$5,583 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,539 −$3,539 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $7 −$6 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,559 −$1,559 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 16 $1,542 −$1,542 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 16 $1,542 −$1,542 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $7,796 +$5,725 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $701 −$559 -80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $271 +$178 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$4 +5%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 15 $130 +$81 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1,576 +$1,721 +109%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,251 −$1,578 -70%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2,750 +$3,444 +125%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $199 −$199 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $1,168 −$1,168 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1,552 −$1,552 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1,528 −$1,528 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $2,043 +$1,557 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $1,172 +$920 +78%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $1,543 +$65 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $180 +$82 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $239 +$209 +88%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1,542 +$1,558 +101%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2,950 +$2,750 +93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $338 +$96 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $229 −$229 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,072 −$1,072 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1,059 +$841 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1,045 +$1,055 +101%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $1,528 +$1,672 +109%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $229 −$229 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $372 −$372 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 19¢ $292 27m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $5,075 28m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $1,522 32m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $588 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 67¢ $55 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 65¢ $191 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 64¢ $46 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 66¢ $34 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $6 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $6 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $12 9h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 93¢ $6,665 10h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 93¢ $649 10h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 91¢ $2,838 12h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 51¢ $2,587 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 57¢ $1,004 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 93¢ $6,227 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 17h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $1,522 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 51¢ $125 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2,030 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 42¢ $537 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 77¢ $244 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 49¢ $353 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $142 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 33¢ $111 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $65 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,763.81 · official $7,750.99 (match) · 1863 history records