Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
41 0x41b5…69f3 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$740 (+14%) realized +$740 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$160
sports 37% +$819
crypto 1% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +34.8% +21.9% 65% 41% +2.9%
≤30d 17 +34.8% +21.9% 65% 41% +2.9%
≤90d 17 +34.8% +21.9% 65% 41% +2.9%
all 17 +34.8% +21.9% 65% 41% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.9% 41% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here +10.3% 41% -6.9%
15% -0.4% 35% -15.9%
20% -10.2% 24% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$31 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.81 per $1 lost it wins $4.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $410 +$10 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $710 −$117 -16%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-5.5) Jun 23 $497 +$314 +63%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $576 +$12 +2%
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) Jun 23 $715 +$296 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $962 −$28 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $346 −$1 -0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-4.5) Jun 21 $445 +$144 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 −$2 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $69 −$36 -53%
Spread: Sweden (-5.5) Jun 20 $141 +$53 +38%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$45 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$3 +293%
Spread: Türkiye (-4.5) Jun 20 $87 +$8 +10%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 20 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $89 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $12 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $2 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $272 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $25 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $5 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 21¢ $11 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 20¢ $410 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 60¢ $593 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $442 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $268 5h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-5.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $41 42h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-5.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $770 42h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-5.5) BUY Portugal 61¢ $497 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $588 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $576 44h
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $10 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 37¢ $295 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 38¢ $303 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $103 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $79 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records