Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41b9…7719 crypto 414 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$156 (-1%) realized −$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%395W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$9
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$102
other 1% −$31
sports 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$19
culture 0% −$12
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -1.5% -10.9% 97% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 156 -2.1% -11.4% 96% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 414 -1.4% -10.8% 95% 0% -10.3%
all 414 -1.4% -10.8% 95% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses395 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)414 / 414
History coverage82d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 414 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 21? Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 19? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 19? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? Jun 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$17 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 39m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $27 12h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $18 36h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $34 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 37h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $28 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.73 · official $37.73 (match) · 1098 history records