Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41ba…53f0 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$13 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$11
14 days−$23
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$36
other 23% −$4
sports 1% −$6
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +9.3% -1.1% 68% 63% -10.9%
≤30d 47 -0.8% -10.2% 62% 57% -13.1%
≤90d 47 -0.8% -10.2% 62% 57% -13.1%
all 47 -0.8% -10.2% 62% 57% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 57% -13.1%
10% -18.8% 45% -21.4%
15% -26.7% 43% -29.0%
20% -33.8% 32% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)47 / 56
History coverage16d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $77 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$21 -41%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$22 +86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $8 +$3 +36%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $31 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $28 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $36 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $27 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.22 · official $115.22 (match) · 117 history records