Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
41 0x41bb…6302 sports 193 markets active 4h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,612 (-3%) realized −$1,654 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%90W / 100L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$695est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,129
7 days−$574
14 days−$2,484
30 days−$3,020
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,402
other 15% −$703
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 50% -16.2%
≤30d 60 -16.2% -24.1% 43% 43% -19.8%
≤90d 180 -6.1% -15.0% 46% 46% -13.2%
all 190 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 47% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 47% -12.7%
10% -22.8% 47% -21.1%
15% -30.3% 45% -28.7%
20% -37.1% 40% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$292 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$1,174
Realized−$1,654
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses90 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$695
Open positions3
Markets (closed)190 / 193
History coverage104d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Under 50¢ 52¢ $563 $593 +$29 (+5%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Under 49¢ 50¢ $293 $296 +$3 (+1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 47¢ 48¢ $275 $285 +$10 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $480 +$593 +124%
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $225 +$237 +105%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $377 +$299 +79%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $500 −$492 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 22 $503 −$503 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $243 +$221 +91%
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $283 +$216 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $220 −$217 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $182 +$225 +124%
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $258 +$222 +86%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $316 −$311 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $280 −$276 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $167 −$164 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $499 −$491 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $742 −$731 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $435 −$427 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $281 +$296 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $529 +$513 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $547 −$539 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $719 +$756 +105%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 Jun 17 $363 −$358 -99%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $128 −$126 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $295 +$310 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $304 +$296 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $347 −$341 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $165 −$162 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $173 +$149 +86%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 14 $269 +$214 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $1,159 −$1,143 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $288 −$285 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 11 $467 −$462 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 10 $847 −$835 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $254 −$250 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $1,102 +$987 +90%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $302 −$298 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $563 +$223 +40%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $355 −$351 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $330 −$325 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 Jun 05 $302 +$250 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 04 $327 −$322 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,346 −$1,332 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $598 +$141 +24%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $94 +$235 +250%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $95 −$93 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $127 −$124 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Jun 03 $343 −$338 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 02 $634 −$625 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 168.5 Jun 01 $539 +$523 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? May 31 $650 −$640 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $860 +$740 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $279 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $297 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $236 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $336 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $275 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $205 29h
Norway vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $225 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $71 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $214 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $377 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $214 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $249 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $220 3d
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $283 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 53¢ $254 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $243 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $316 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $280 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 35¢ $167 4d
Londrina EC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $258 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $182 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $250 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $249 5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $412 5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $330 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $267 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $281 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $302 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $168 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $226 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,173.52 · official $1,173.52 (match) · 419 history records