Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41be…5f38 crypto 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$563 (-5%) realized −$536 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%107W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$264
7 days−$177
14 days+$129
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$149
crypto 36% −$1,164
world 7% +$99
finance 1% −$8
tech 1% +$46
politics 0% −$28
sports 0% −$2
economics 0% −$22
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.1% -24.1% 50% 50% -35.3%
≤30d 25 +63.0% +47.5% 48% 40% -0.5%
≤90d 175 +21.0% +9.4% 51% 38% -11.9%
all 198 +20.7% +9.2% 54% 41% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.2% 41% -18.9%
10% -1.3% 29% -26.6%
15% -10.8% 21% -33.7%
20% -19.6% 14% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$33 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$536
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses107 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)198 / 205
History coverage138d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $91 $84 −$6 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $16 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $18 $1 −$16 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 20¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+142%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $42 +$12 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $435 −$273 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $140 +$88 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $383 −$177 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $316 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $307 +$487 +158%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $48 −$10 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $141 +$42 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $149 +$243 +163%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $0 +$1 +414%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $102 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $167 −$6 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $53 −$9 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $181 −$79 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $187 −$76 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $233 −$113 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $30 +$62 +209%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $51 +$14 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 24 $14 −$5 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $140 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $39 +$6 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026? May 21 $32 −$8 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $62 +$22 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $194 −$94 -48%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 17 $7 $0 -5%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 17 $1 $0 -37%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 -48%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? May 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $102 −$34 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $71 +$79 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $56 +$25 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $246 −$40 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $16 −$7 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $8 −$5 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $190 −$146 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $25 −$19 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $98 +$209 +213%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $54 13m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 44m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $33 45m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $93 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $193 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $70 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 15h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $48 16h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $138 16h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 16h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $190 17h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 17h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 17h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 17h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 17h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $7 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 38h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 46h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $79 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.36 · official $159.21 (match) · 785 history records