Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41c0…901d sports 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,404 (-26%) realized −$3,404 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$657per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$2,961
other 4% −$508
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -10.6% -19.1% 33% 33% -10.9%
≤30d 20 -33.0% -39.3% 25% 25% -33.7%
≤90d 20 -33.0% -39.3% 25% 25% -33.7%
all 20 -33.0% -39.3% 25% 25% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 25% -33.7%
10% -45.1% 25% -40.0%
15% -50.4% 25% -45.8%
20% -55.3% 25% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,120 vs −$605 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,404
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$657
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $961 −$947 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $473 −$467 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,172 +$1,184 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $478 +$696 +146%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $864 +$2,263 +262%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $182 +$454 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,217 +$1,006 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $992 −$973 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,094 −$1,077 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $177 −$173 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 47h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $961 47h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $473 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $1,014 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,016 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,172 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $478 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $1,015 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $3,126 6d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $864 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1,014 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $182 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $1,217 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $992 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $78 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,016 7d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 7d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $177 8d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1,017 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records