Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x41c1…c33c crypto 18 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,166 (+20%) realized +$3,166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$872per market
Trades / day84.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$1,918
crypto 42% +$1,103
sports 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +20.6% +9.1% 59% 53% -0.2%
≤30d 18 +22.0% +10.4% 61% 56% +10.3%
≤90d 18 +22.0% +10.4% 61% 56% +10.3%
all 18 +22.0% +10.4% 61% 56% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.4% 56% +10.3%
10% -0.2% 50% -0.2%
15% ← realistic here -9.8% 44% -9.9%
20% -18.7% 39% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$937) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$578 vs −$492 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$872
Trades / day84.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,367 +$696 +51%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,216 −$1,016 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $654 +$1,096 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $527 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $211 +$122 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $823 +$433 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $625 +$108 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $526 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $937 +$1,053 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $857 −$816 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $642 −$610 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $278 +$332 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $213 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $105 +$268 +255%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,009 +$229 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,398 +$2,008 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $106 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $106 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $87 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $666 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $512 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $422 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records