Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41c1…2bf0
other · 248 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$85 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage134d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 1 History 247 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $416 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $667 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $943 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $459 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $156 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $323 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $558 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $330 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $220 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $496 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $242 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $432 −$1 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 30 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 29 $73 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 28 $279 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$42
sports 20% −$17
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 2h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 3h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 11h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 12h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 21h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 22h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 30h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 31h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 36h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 37h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $65 39h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $65 41h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 42h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 44h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $65 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 3d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $66 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.20 · official $64.20 (match) · 1382 history records