Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41c5…5856 crypto 133 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+8%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate65%87W / 46L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day117.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -4.7% -13.7% 65% 24% -6.1%
≤30d 133 -4.7% -13.7% 65% 24% -6.1%
≤90d 133 -4.7% -13.7% 65% 24% -6.1%
all 133 -4.7% -13.7% 65% 24% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 24% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 13% -15.0%
15% -29.5% 8% -23.3%
20% -36.4% 5% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses87 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day117.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 383 history records