Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41c8…424f
sports · 763 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$322 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$304 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$74
Realized−$304
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses388 / 367
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions8
Markets (closed)755 / 763
History coverage80d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 8 History 755 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$50
14 days−$60
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 14¢ 14¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Heretics 54¢ 44¢ $14 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 48¢ 22¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI KT Rolster 13¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Federico Bondioli 61¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+64%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs 9INE 60¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner The Last Resort 50¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Misa Esports 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Atreides (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffs Atreides 43¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C or higher on May 23? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 23? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs LPH Gaming - Map 1 Winner LPH Gaming 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner 9INE 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
FC Volendam vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-03? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
O/U 4.5 Rounds Under 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card) Deiveson Figueiredo 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Marcus Buchecha 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner Lavked 56¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $0 $0 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$14 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$11 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$7 +44%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $13 +$10 +73%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 +$12 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
ITF Zagreb: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Ipek Oz Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $17 +$16 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +83%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $2 +$1 +53%
ITF Nice: Manon Favier vs Julia Stusek Jun 10 $11 +$3 +24%
ITF Zagreb: Lea Boskovic vs Erika Andreeva Jun 10 $3 +$1 +32%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 09 $8 +$3 +38%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$1 +24%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $6 +$1 +16%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $6 +$5 +76%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $12 −$12 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% −$141
crypto 5% $0
other 5% −$157
weather 1% −$21
world 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $2 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 54¢ $15 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $4 1h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 54¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $18 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 14¢ $26 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $1 3h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 44¢ $20 4h
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 45¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5h
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Benjamin Bonzi 22¢ $6 6h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 37¢ $0 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 8h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $12 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 54% -4.3%
≤30d 198 -10.9% -19.4% 51% 50% -17.0%
≤90d 755 -2.1% -11.4% 51% 49% -12.4%
all 755 -2.1% -11.4% 51% 49% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 49% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 45% -20.8%
15% -27.6% 43% -28.4%
20% -34.7% 39% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.39 · official $74.11 (match) · 3500 history records