Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41cc…26ea sports 388 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,540 (+6%) realized +$1,532 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%169W / 211L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$298
14 days−$407
30 days−$368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$2,237
other 6% −$541
crypto 4% −$18
politics 2% +$84
tech 0% −$110
world 0% −$101
culture 0% −$28
economics 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 35 -25.8% -32.8% 34% 34% -37.6%
≤90d 92 -11.4% -19.8% 42% 40% -21.8%
all 380 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 43% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 43% -4.4%
10% -19.7% 41% -13.5%
15% -27.4% 39% -21.9%
20% -34.5% 38% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$63 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$1,532
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses169 / 211
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions6
Markets (closed)380 / 388
History coverage619d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 29¢ 34¢ $56 $65 +$9 (+16%)
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $298 −$298 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $42 +$47 +113%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$22 +105%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -6%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $44 +$39 +89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $44 +$88 +197%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $45 −$1 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $30 +$40 +134%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $31 +$31 +101%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $28 +$28 +101%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $9 +$8 +90%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $9 +$6 +70%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $20 +$11 +56%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $12 +$8 +67%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $78 +$64 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Kent Jun 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $63 +$39 +62%
Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 25 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 21 $3 +$1 +20%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $9 −$9 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels May 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $120 −$84 -70%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) May 03 $106 +$69 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 02 $98 +$166 +169%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 02 $69 +$91 +132%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 29¢ $58 2h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $3 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $97 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $5 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $45 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 51¢ $148 4d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $43 7d
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 34¢ $50 7d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 47¢ $26 9d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 47¢ $1 9d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 47¢ $2 9d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 47¢ $4 9d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 47¢ $4 9d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 47¢ $2 9d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 47¢ $2 9d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Hunter Heck 47¢ $1 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 9d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 12d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 44¢ $23 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 14d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 36¢ $1 14d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $20 14d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $14 14d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $15 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 14d
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 100¢ $83 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $44 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.78 · official $75.68 · 1134 history records