Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:52:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41cd…cb5d other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%22W / 121L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$18
politics 25% −$14
sports 22% −$10
crypto 9% −$7
economics 4% −$2
world 4% −$6
culture 2% −$1
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 64 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 118 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 143 -0.6% -10.0% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses22 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage108d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $110 −$1 -1%
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $53 −$2 -3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $198 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $150 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $47 −$1 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $41 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $164 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $120 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $61 −$2 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will NRG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $115 −$2 -2%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $53 −$3 -5%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $93 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $24 −$1 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $46 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $39 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $103 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $47 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $67 42m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 97¢ $60 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $7 9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $54 9h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 94¢ $52 10h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $53 17h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 17h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 22h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $25 23h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 94¢ $25 31h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 31h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 39h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 39h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 47h
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 89¢ $46 2d
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $47 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $55 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 98¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 97¢ $19 3d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 3d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $55 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $44 4d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $44 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.59 · official $66.59 (match) · 527 history records