Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41d0…6450 world 71 markets active 9h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$5
other 27% −$8
sports 10% +$2
politics 7% $0
economics 4% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 26 -1.6% -10.9% 31% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 65 -0.7% -10.1% 37% 3% -9.3%
all 70 -2.4% -11.7% 39% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 4% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage519d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$4 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $158 +$2 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $88 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $82 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $118 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $217 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $53 +$7 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $12 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $150 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $116 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $17 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $2 $0 -24%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $45 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 +$1 +22%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $48 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $66 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $3 $0 +3%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $5 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $4 $0 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $11 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $8 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $17 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $32 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $45 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records