Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41d3…4522 crypto 1247 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-3%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%723W / 524L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$98
14 days−$65
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$187
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -9.1% -17.8% 53% 49% -30.2%
≤30d 559 -4.8% -13.9% 57% 51% -15.4%
≤90d 1247 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 50% -16.0%
all 1247 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 50% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 50% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 42% -24.0%
15% -31.7% 34% -31.4%
20% -38.4% 27% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses723 / 524
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1247 / 1247
History coverage56d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1247 Trades
no open positions (420 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2229 history records