Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
41 0x41d5…35e1 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,024 (+87%) realized +$1,036 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +276% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +214% what you keep after slip
Net edge+214%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$445
other 33% +$666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+239.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +275.6% +239.8% 67% 67% +211.8%
≤30d 6 +275.6% +239.8% 67% 67% +211.8%
≤90d 6 +275.6% +239.8% 67% 67% +211.8%
all 6 +275.6% +239.8% 67% 67% +211.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +239.8% 67% +211.8%
10% +207.3% 67% +182.0%
15% +177.6% 67% +154.7%
20% +150.4% 67% +129.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +245% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +276% · $-wt +245% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$69 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.17 per $1 lost it wins $9.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$688
Realized+$1,036
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 68¢ 76¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+12%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $100 $126 +$26 (+26%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 64¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 48¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 18¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 +$432 +468%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $91 +$102 +112%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $46 +$449 +970%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $92 +$279 +303%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $524 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $194 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 99¢ $495 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $371 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $46 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $92 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $91 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $91 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $687.52 · official $687.52 (match) · 20 history records