Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41d6…5a26 crypto 903 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$16,312 (+41%) realized −$489 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%373W / 532L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day500.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$329
7 days−$489
14 days−$489
30 days−$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 905 -8.1% -16.9% 41% 30% -10.6%
≤30d 905 -8.1% -16.9% 41% 30% -10.6%
≤90d 905 -8.1% -16.9% 41% 30% -10.6%
all 905 -8.1% -16.9% 41% 30% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover500.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 30% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 24% -19.2%
15% -32.1% 16% -27.0%
20% -38.8% 10% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$489
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses373 / 532
Open positions0
Markets (closed)905 / 903
History coverage5d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day500.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 905 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 75¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$11 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$20 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $60 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $121 −$21 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $129 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$37 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $96 +$54 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $68 −$18 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $216 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $221 −$21 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$34 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $127 +$23 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $84 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $171 +$29 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$27 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $58 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$17 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $65 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $61 −$11 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $38 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $67 −$17 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$43 +625%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $23 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $38 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $23 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $35 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $28 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $30 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $35 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $37 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $37 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $33 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records