Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41d6…01f9 crypto 432 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (350 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,455 (+47%) realized +$3,421 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%131W / 266L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day349.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$156
other 2% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (350 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -9.1% -17.8% 33% 26% -12.8%
≤30d 397 -7.9% -16.6% 33% 26% -11.5%
≤90d 397 -7.9% -16.6% 33% 26% -11.5%
all 397 -7.9% -16.6% 33% 26% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover349.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 26% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 21% -20.0%
15% -31.9% 17% -27.7%
20% -38.6% 12% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$3,421
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses131 / 266
Open positions49
Markets (closed)397 / 432
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day349.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 20¢ $14 $39 +$25 (+179%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $27 $37 +$10 (+36%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 9¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+80%)
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+38%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $2 $17 +$14 (+659%)
Will Aster reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+31%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-25%)
XRP all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+87%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+73%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Solana all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 17 $24 −$13 -54%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $12 −$9 -69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$7 +41%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $80 −$4 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $47 −$7 -16%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? Jun 15 $12 −$10 -86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +138%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$7 -57%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? Jun 15 $58 +$48 +82%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $13 −$2 -19%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 8-14? Jun 15 $19 −$6 -30%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Solana dip to $10 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 15 $44 −$2 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 17? Jun 15 $6 −$2 -35%
Will Solana reach $120 in June? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 14 $11 −$4 -34%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $24 +$4 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $13 −$9 -66%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 14 $25 −$2 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $32 −$30 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $69 −$56 -81%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -96%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -92%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +217%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? SELL No 0¢ $0 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $0 21h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? SELL Yes 88¢ $102 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $1 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 31h
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 34h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 38h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? SELL No 1¢ $0 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 41h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 42h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? SELL No 0¢ $0 44h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 45h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $58 47h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? SELL No 0¢ $0 47h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $74 47h
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $332.77 · official $332.41 (match) · 3500 history records