Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
41 0x41d7…c640 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,522 (+3%) realized +$1,813 · open −$291
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate85%78W / 14L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2,647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$136
14 days+$688
30 days+$1,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$1,107
other 7% +$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.2% -13.4% 85% 20% -8.2%
≤30d 92 +0.6% -9.0% 85% 34% -6.2%
≤90d 92 +0.6% -9.0% 85% 34% -6.2%
all 92 +0.6% -9.0% 85% 34% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 34% -6.2%
10% -17.7% 17% -15.1%
15% -25.6% 9% -23.3%
20% -32.9% 4% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$140 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2,647
Realized+$1,813
Unrealized−$291
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses78 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions6
Markets (closed)92 / 98
History coverage28d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $2,073 $2,061 −$11 (-1%)
Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Grind Back 98¢ 100¢ $197 $200 +$3 (+1%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 97¢ 49¢ $291 $147 −$144 (-49%)
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Yellow Submarine 99¢ 81¢ $132 $109 −$23 (-17%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner MOUZ 79¢ 30¢ $189 $72 −$116 (-62%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $104 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $137 +$2 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $119 +$10 +8%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jun 18 $1,958 +$19 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $4 +$2 +50%
Game Handicap: DK.C (-2.5) vs T1 Academy (+2.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $528 −$88 -17%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $104 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $329 +$17 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $101 +$7 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $201 +$12 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $617 +$87 +14%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $112 +$13 +12%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $463 +$19 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $195 −$195 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $2,262 +$68 +3%
Game Handicap: SGW (-1.5) vs Top Esports Challenger (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $112 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,435 +$24 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,069 +$87 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$28 +54%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $16 +$1 +6%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,008 +$74 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $400 +$120 +30%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $200 +$15 +7%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $43 +$2 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $501 +$24 +5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,207 +$275 +23%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $101 −$85 -84%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$98 -96%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $422 −$422 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $255 +$36 +14%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,631 +$440 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $300 +$6 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $201 +$23 +11%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$9 +9%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$33 +33%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $302 +$93 +31%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$9 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $201 +$46 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$60 +59%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $389 +$12 +3%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $301 +$52 +17%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $200 +$17 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,078 52m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY Yellow Submarine 97¢ $291 54m
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Yellow Submarine 99¢ $60 1h
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Yellow Submarine 98¢ $72 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 58¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 90¢ $100 2h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 83¢ $50 2h
Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) BUY Grind Back 98¢ $197 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $57 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 96¢ $1,001 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $104 3d
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser BUY Jeline Vandromme 99¢ $1,958 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $53 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $13 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $18 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $36 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $427 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 79¢ $101 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ $4 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $137 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $39 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $33 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $32 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 87¢ $100 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $19 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $89 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 82¢ $101 3d
Game Handicap: DK.C (-2.5) vs T1 Academy (+2.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 0¢ $1 4d
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 99¢ $104 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,646.98 · official $2,646.99 (match) · 315 history records