Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41d8…670c crypto 18 markets active 6d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-48%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-62.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -86.5% -87.8% 0% 0% -83.5%
≤30d 18 -58.3% -62.3% 6% 6% -59.6%
≤90d 18 -58.3% -62.3% 6% 6% -59.6%
all 18 -58.3% -62.3% 6% 6% -59.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.3% 6% -59.6%
10% -65.9% 0% -63.5%
15% -69.2% 0% -67.0%
20% -72.2% 0% -70.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 08 $8 −$5 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 08 $9 −$6 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 08 $7 −$5 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$6 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$2 -43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 05 $1 $0 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY No 8¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 14? SELL No 1¢ $0 6d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 14? BUY No 5¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 24¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 24¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 24¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 24¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 15¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 16¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? SELL No 8¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 17¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? SELL No 8¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? SELL No 8¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? SELL No 4¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? SELL No 4¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? SELL No 8¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 17¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 18¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 18¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 18¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 18¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? SELL No 5¢ $0 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? SELL No 5¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records