Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
41 0x41d8…6113 crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (225 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$140 (+10%) realized +$142 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%39W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day225.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$14
sports 1% +$12
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (225 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +17.1% +5.9% 59% 56% -9.2%
≤30d 66 +17.1% +5.9% 59% 56% -9.2%
≤90d 66 +17.1% +5.9% 59% 56% -9.2%
all 66 +17.1% +5.9% 59% 56% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover225.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.9% 56% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.2% 45% -17.9%
15% -13.5% 35% -25.8%
20% -21.9% 21% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$142
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses39 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day225.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 80¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$13 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $72 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $36 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$20 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$28 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $33 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $43 +$12 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$22 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $48 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $38 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $81 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $46 +$18 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $33 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$5 +58%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 +$5 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$8 +49%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.19 · official $3.19 (match) · 275 history records