Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

41 0x41d9…c584 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$310 (-19%) realized −$287 · open −$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$320per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-31.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	-24.0%	-31.3%	25%	0%	-31.7%
≤90d	4	-24.0%	-31.3%	25%	0%	-31.7%
all	4	-24.0%	-31.3%	25%	0%	-31.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.3%	0%	-31.7%
10%	-37.9%	0%	-38.2%
15%	-43.9%	0%	-44.2%
20%	-49.4%	0%	-49.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -24% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$110 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.05 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$293

Realized−$287

Unrealized−$23

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage10d

Avg bet$320

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?	No	93¢	86¢	$316	$293	−$23 (-7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	Jun 10	$327	−$326	-100%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?	Jun 10	$329	−$2	-1%
Spread: Moldova (-1.5)	Jun 09	$313	+$16	+5%
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Jun 09	$316	−$2	-1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?	BUY No	93¢	$317	1h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	BUY No	94¢	$327	8d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?	SELL No	92¢	$327	8d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?	BUY No	92¢	$329	8d
Spread: Moldova (-1.5)	BUY Armenia	95¢	$313	9d
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	SELL No	92¢	$314	9d
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$316	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.53 · official $292.53 (match) · 8 history records