Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

41
0x41dc…4e05
crypto · 71 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$107 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$102 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$795
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions32
Markets (closed)39 / 71
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 32 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$102
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 85¢ 84¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 82¢ 81¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 81¢ 80¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 77¢ 76¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 75¢ 74¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 79¢ 78¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? No 88¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 86¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 81¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 81¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 80¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 74¢ 74¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$9 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$7 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$9 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$8 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$5 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$6 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 2PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$4 -22%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$5 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$5 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 10AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% −$5
crypto 38% −$102
world 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $5 17m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $8 19m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $15 20m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $30 20m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $44 20m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $44 20m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $44 20m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $44 20m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $44 20m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $44 20m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 41m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 48m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $20 48m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 48m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $20 48m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 80¢ $20 48m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 48m
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 48m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $20 48m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $20 49m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 86¢ $20 49m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $20 49m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 73¢ $20 49m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $20 49m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $20 49m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $20 49m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 49m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $20 49m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $20 49m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 74¢ $20 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -17.7% -25.5% 49% 41% -28.1%
≤30d 39 -17.7% -25.5% 49% 41% -28.1%
≤90d 39 -17.7% -25.5% 49% 41% -28.1%
all 39 -17.7% -25.5% 49% 41% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 41% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 31% -35.0%
15% -39.2% 21% -41.2%
20% -45.1% 0% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $794.67 · official $794.69 (match) · 137 history records